Sidebar #58 - 2026 Costa Rican Presidential Election
Note: These are my objective observations of Costa Rica’s upcoming election as a foreigner living here, not my personal opinions. Additionally, these observations are my own and don’t reflect those of the U.S. government or the Peace Corps.
This is a big week for Costa Rica. On Sunday, February 1, Costa Ricans will cast ballots for their next President. There are other elections, namely legislative, that are also happening on Sunday, but for the purpose of this blog, I’ll keep it simple and focus on the Presidential election taking place.
There are several differences between the Costa Rican presidential process and our elections in the US. One of these distinctions is the sheer number of political parties, and therefore, presidential candidates. The election is Sunday (I’m writing this on Thursday) and there are still roughly 20 candidates in the race (with varying degrees of viability). In Costa Rica, the President cannot serve consecutive terms, meaning that there will be a new President inaugurated in May. Additionally, this first round of voting on Sunday functions somewhat similarly to the primary system in the United States. The top two candidates (regardless of party) will advance to a run-off election on April 5th. However, if a candidate receives 40 percent or more of the vote on Sunday, there is no run-off vote; he or she will become the next President. One last difference (that I’ve really enjoyed) is that there are a TON of presidential debates because of the large number of candidates. Over the course of the last few weeks, it feels there’s been a nationally-televised debate almost every night.
The incumbent President is named Rodrigo Chaves. His party, Pueblo Soberano (PPSO), nominated the former Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy, Laura Fernández, as its candidate for President. Pueblo Soberano’s ideology tends to skew towards right-wing populism, not too dissimilar to the agenda of the Trump Administration. Fernández, according to polls, appears to be the strong favorite at this point in the race. Most polls have her hovering at around 40 percent. This is significant, because as mentioned in the above paragraph, 40 percent is the threshold needed to avoid the run-off vote in April.
Although Fernández is pretty clearly the running favorite, there are many other candidates who still believe they have viability if they can push the election to the April run-off. Fernández is dominating the conservative voting bloc, meaning that many of the candidates most closely trailing her are a bit more to the left ideologically. Most polls have Álvaro Ramos, who heads Costa Rica’s social security administration, and Claudia Dobles, a former First Lady and architect, as the most likely candidates to finish in second place in this first round of voting. They represent the Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN), and Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC), respectively. Traditionally, those parties both follow center-left ideologies. I’ve seen a wide spectrum of polling for each of these 2 candidates with numbers as high as 12 percent and as low as 4 percent. Furthermore, there are a handful of other candidates, who possess political ideologies ranging from Democratic Socialism to Christian Democracy to Conservatism who still believe they could finish in second on Sunday and compete against Fernández in the run-off.
Costa Rica is a small country, and a large percentage of voters purport to still be undecided. Voter turnout, especially which way the undecided voters skew, will play a large role in determining who comes in second place in this first round of voting, and whether or not run-off elections will be held in April. What to watch for: will Fernández clear 40 percent? If not, who will come in second place and compete against her in the run-off in April? Both of these questions will probably be answered by a razor-thin margin on Sunday.
This is a big week for Costa Rica. On Sunday, February 1, Costa Ricans will cast ballots for their next President. There are other elections, namely legislative, that are also happening on Sunday, but for the purpose of this blog, I’ll keep it simple and focus on the Presidential election taking place.
There are several differences between the Costa Rican presidential process and our elections in the US. One of these distinctions is the sheer number of political parties, and therefore, presidential candidates. The election is Sunday (I’m writing this on Thursday) and there are still roughly 20 candidates in the race (with varying degrees of viability). In Costa Rica, the President cannot serve consecutive terms, meaning that there will be a new President inaugurated in May. Additionally, this first round of voting on Sunday functions somewhat similarly to the primary system in the United States. The top two candidates (regardless of party) will advance to a run-off election on April 5th. However, if a candidate receives 40 percent or more of the vote on Sunday, there is no run-off vote; he or she will become the next President. One last difference (that I’ve really enjoyed) is that there are a TON of presidential debates because of the large number of candidates. Over the course of the last few weeks, it feels there’s been a nationally-televised debate almost every night.
The incumbent President is named Rodrigo Chaves. His party, Pueblo Soberano (PPSO), nominated the former Minister of National Planning and Economic Policy, Laura Fernández, as its candidate for President. Pueblo Soberano’s ideology tends to skew towards right-wing populism, not too dissimilar to the agenda of the Trump Administration. Fernández, according to polls, appears to be the strong favorite at this point in the race. Most polls have her hovering at around 40 percent. This is significant, because as mentioned in the above paragraph, 40 percent is the threshold needed to avoid the run-off vote in April.
Although Fernández is pretty clearly the running favorite, there are many other candidates who still believe they have viability if they can push the election to the April run-off. Fernández is dominating the conservative voting bloc, meaning that many of the candidates most closely trailing her are a bit more to the left ideologically. Most polls have Álvaro Ramos, who heads Costa Rica’s social security administration, and Claudia Dobles, a former First Lady and architect, as the most likely candidates to finish in second place in this first round of voting. They represent the Partido Liberación Nacional (PLN), and Partido Acción Ciudadana (PAC), respectively. Traditionally, those parties both follow center-left ideologies. I’ve seen a wide spectrum of polling for each of these 2 candidates with numbers as high as 12 percent and as low as 4 percent. Furthermore, there are a handful of other candidates, who possess political ideologies ranging from Democratic Socialism to Christian Democracy to Conservatism who still believe they could finish in second on Sunday and compete against Fernández in the run-off.
Costa Rica is a small country, and a large percentage of voters purport to still be undecided. Voter turnout, especially which way the undecided voters skew, will play a large role in determining who comes in second place in this first round of voting, and whether or not run-off elections will be held in April. What to watch for: will Fernández clear 40 percent? If not, who will come in second place and compete against her in the run-off in April? Both of these questions will probably be answered by a razor-thin margin on Sunday.
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